• Asian Handicap Football Betting Explained
• Handicap Football Betting Tips
• Handicap In Football Betting Means
• Soccer Asian Handicap Betting Tips
• Nfl Football Betting Lines
• Handicap Betting Meaning

NCAA Football Betting Strategies: Guide to the Top Systems

College Football Betting Intro

Our database is a valuable resource for college football handicappers to discover betting angles that they wouldn’t necessarily have access to. The box-score data goes back to 1996 and the odds and totals go back as far as 1990. 12 College Football Handicapping Betting Tips from Expert College football Handicappers by Docsports.com - 5/21/2019 Doc's Sports Services is the most trusted and well-respected sports information.

When we talk about football, we usually think first of the NFL. It is after all America’s most popular sports organization.

As we discussed in our Intro to NFL Betting, the American Gaming Association estimated bettors to have wagered upwards of $4.7 billion dollars on the nation’s most-watched sporting event this past year—the Super Bowl.

• In two-way handicap betting in football, the start that one team must concede to the other is declared as a fraction, for example 1.5 goals, 2.5 goals, 3.5 goals, etc. This means that there can’t be a draw, so there are only two possible results, a win for the home team or a win for the away team – hence the name two-way handicap betting.
• Handicap betting is common practice in points-based sports like football, rugby, basketball, and tennis, but is also frequently used in racing events, particularly horse racing.
• Handicap football betting involves making the perceived difference in quality between the two teams redundant in terms of a bet. Essentially, it levels out the playing field when there is an overwhelming.

And that’s just one estimate. When you look at the global numbers, this figure nearly doubles. Mint, a prominent financial planning website, estimates that bettors stake more than $8 billion every year on the Super Bowl alone.

But the NFL is not the only league to garner such attention from bettors.

NCAA football is right up there with it.

In 2014, Super Bowl XLIX only generated about 10,000 more bets than the most heavily bet college football game

In 2014, Super Bowl XLIX only generated about 10,000 more bets than the most heavily bet college football game: 122,370 compared to 112,644. And, according to CNBC, bettors stake between $60-70 billion in illegal wages on college football each year.

Since the NCAA decided to establish and expand their playoff format, bowl games and championships have proven to be hot opportunities for bettors.

Unlike the NFL, which plays almost all its games on Sunday, college football offers bettors the chance to wage on matchups happening throughout the week, including thirty plus matchups on Saturdays.

A greater slate of games means more money lines, more spreads, more chances to get some bang for your buck.

According to SportsInsights there was a point spread listed for 894 college football games in 2015. Meanwhile, in merely a handful of offshore sportsbooks, a grand total of 12,774,988 bets were placed during the college football season.

With so many options it’s easy to see why college football ranks as one of the most bet-on sports in America.

As part of this article, we will discuss the different types of bets you can make on college games as well as some helpful tips and strategies for maximizing your returns.

But before we get into all that, let’s first take a look at the basics of our very own predictive wager system.

The Sports Analytics Simulator

The Simulator is built based on a predictive model created by a doctor with an extensive background in mathematics, psychology, and operations research.

The best networks were able to correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time.

This individual has worked with multiple professional and collegiate sports organizations, player agents, sports data agencies and a top-ranked fantasy website. His work with professional sports organizations includes optimizing scout travel, in-depth player analysis and lineup configurations.

Among his greatest innovations was the discovery of neural networks as a powerful tool for sports betting.

A neural network is defined as a computer system modeled on the human brain and nervous system. Using this technology, the good doctor found that “the best networks were able to correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time.”

While the model was initially developed around NBA betting, it has since been applied to other sports — chief among them, college football.

What makes the Sports Analytics Simulator unique is that it relies not on data inputs (statistics) from previous seasons, but on continuous game-to-game updates.

The Simulator’s specific algorithms run through up to forty different stat categories to create the most efficient model possible. From this model, we derive our picks for each game. And the best part is, our system is a living, breathing predictive model — it possesses machine learning capacities that allow to detect trends and potentials that we mere humans could only dream of finding.

For more information, check out this handy dandy video on how it works:

College Football Betting

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s talk about the fundamentals of college football betting. Much like the NFL, college football offers the standard bets: spread, moneyline, totals, parlays, and teasers. Unique to college football are the 1st quarter and halftime bets. Let’s take a look at each type.

Spread Bet

Just like the NFL, college football’s most popular wager is the spread bet.

With spreads, bookmakers set a spread with a favorite and an underdog. This type of bet equalizes the chance of winning a wager.

In order for you to win on a bet of this nature, one team must cover the spread — so if the spread is -7 in favor of the Florida State over Oregon, the Sentinels must win by seven points or more. Whereas in order for the Ducks to cover the spread, they must either lose by less than seven points, or win.

For any spread, the underdog is indicated by a “+” while the favorite is indicated by a “-”. To make it simpler, the spread gives the underdog a ‘head start’. In this case, the Ducks have a +7 head start in points to kick off the game.

Also, when looking at spreads, you’ll see a larger number next to the actual spread. It might look like this:

• Florida State -7 -115
• Oregon +7 -105

The larger number is what’s called the Juice. It’s basically the fee that bookmakers charge for you to place a bet. In our example, if Florida State covers the spread a winning bet of $115 will yield $100 profit. Now, if you simply want to bet on the winner of the game you’ll want to place a…

Moneyline Bet

Moneyline betting is an equally common form of sports betting as spread bets. The difference is that with moneylines, bookmakers will set lines representing the favorite and the underdog. Let’s go back to this Florida State-Oregon matchup.

Let’s say the Sentinels have a favored line of -150 and the Ducks have an underdog line of +125. What this means is that in order to win a hundred dollars on the Sentinels, you must wage $150.

As for the underdogs, if you wage $100 you will win $125. Generally, the moneyline reflects the spread.

With the sheer number of available bets on a given Saturday, a bettor may choose to parlay (see below) several big favorites, which will increase the risk AND the payout of the wager. So that’s that.

Totals Bet

Totals betting is rather self-explanatory.

Also known as over/under, this form of betting involves placing a wager on the total number of points scored by both teams combined in a game.

Let’s say bookmakers set an over/under of 32 points for the Sentinels and Ducks. Your job as a bettor is to decide whether the score will be… over or under 32 points.

Prop Bet

A prop bet is a special kind of bet that has nothing to do with the outcome or final score of a game.

Prop bets come in many different forms. Some of them are player-based — how many yards or touchdowns a specific player scores. Some of them are based in live betting, i.e. if a team scores on a specific drive.

During bowl games you’ll see all sorts of fun prop bets like coin toss wagers.

Parlay Bet

You might have seen a parlay bet featured in the film, Silver Linings Playbook, (or read it in the book), wherein Pat Solitano’s father, Patrizio Sr., places a bet on the Eagles-Cowboys game and the judging outcome of Pat and Tiffany’s dance number in a local dance-off.

In order for Patrizio to win the bet, the Eagles must win their game against Dallas and Tiffany and Pat must score 5 out of 10 in their dance competition.

This is what’s known as a parlay bet, wherein various games and outcomes are rubber-banded together into one single bet.

In order for the bettor to win the wager, all outcomes must unfold accordingly. This might involve a handful of other bets such as a totals bet and a moneyline bet. In college football, this is a common form of betting to increase risk and reward for your wagers.

Teaser Bet

A teaser bet is a form of parlay that involves a combination of two to ten wagers in which you adjust the point spreads and/or totals in your favor in exchange for a lower payout.

When your teaser includes a point spread, you have the option to decrease the spread for the favorite or increase the spread for the underdog.

When you’re teasing a total, you can increase the under or decrease the over.

Like a parlay, winning the bet is dependent on all of the wagers winning.

Standard teasers are 6, 6.5 and 7-point. There’s also a sweetheart teaser, which offers you have the choice to tease a line by 10 or 13 points. It’s basically a parlay with a little bit of zazz.

A teaser involves the same stipulations as a parlay; only you select a number of points to put down to decrease the risk (and reward) of a parlay.

For example, if a spread for a game is -7 and you place a 3-point teaser bet, your new line is -4. This 3-point advantage applies to each aspect of the teaser play.

College Football Betting Stats

Now that you know the basics of college football betting, let’s touch on some important factors to consider when handicapping games.

First and foremost, you’ve got to understand the nature of college football. In the NFL, all 32 teams are relatively equal in stature. Size, speed, skill—the NFL is filled with ever-tight competition.

But in college football, the stakes are different. Emotions run high. Motivations change week-to-week, game-to-game.

Up to 70 players can impact the outcome of a given matchup.

Experts have a lot of ideas about what statistics most impact a college football game. The following five, derived from numbers from the 2016 season, have consistently proven their influence on a team’s odds.

Explosiveness – as measured by PPP (points per play)

This one is simple. If a team makes more big plays than their opponent, they’re likely to win the game.

According to statistics, if a team leads in PPP they will win 86 percent of their matchups.

So look for a team with a penchant for big plays, and keep an eye on their opponents’ defensive stats.

If they’re giving up high PPP numbers each week, there’s a good chance they’ll lose.

Efficiency – as measured by success rate.

Success rate is measured by a number of baselines: 50% of needed yards on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down.

This stat is similar to on-base percentage in baseball.

If a team has a high efficiency rating, they’re likely to avoid drive-crippling passing downs and, beyond that, stay on schedule, control the clock, and wear down their opponent’s defenses by keeping on the field.

If a team can best their opponent in efficiency, they’ll also win the game 83 percent of the time.

Field Position – as measured by average starting field position

They say special teams wins games. That’s what makes them so special.

Sure, it’s always a boost when a return man can return a kick or a punt for a touchdown. But it’s his ability to consistently provide his team with outstanding starting field position that determines his worth. Hence why good return men are so highly coveted in football.

They are often their team’s x-factor—the difference between having to drive 75 yards or 65 yards to the end zone.

As such, the team who wins the battle for field position wins the game 72 percent of the time.

Finishing Drives – as measured by points per trip inside the 40

Finish what you’ve started.

At this point you might find these tips a bit formulaic. It stands to reason that if a team creates big scoring plays, controls the clock, manages the ball, establishes solid field position, minimizes turnovers, and maximizes scoring drives, they’ll likely win the game.

When it comes to finishing drives, it’s less about how many opportunities you get inside the red zone, and more about how many points you can score once inside the 40.

There are numerous examples of teams creating more red zone opportunities but fewer scores than their opponent.

In 2012, Hawaii created 12 scoring opportunities against Colorado State’s four on October 27. They outgained the Rams by 102 yards, but still lost, 42-27. Talk about demoralizing.

The Warriors lost three turnovers (at the CSU 30, 31, and 33), punted twice (at the CSU 39 and 40), attempted three field goals (missing one), and turned the ball over on downs at the 2. Not to mention one of those three turnovers was an interception returned for a touchdown.

The point is straightforward: teams must score touchdowns on the majority of their drives that reach beyond their opponent’s 40.

Field goals will not cut it.

Basically, if a team can still put points on the board despite fewer scoring opportunities, they’ll win the game 72 percent of the time.

Turnovers – as measured by turnover margin

If we’re not beating a dead horse by now I don’t know what we’re doing.

Surprisingly enough turnovers are not the biggest factor to consider when handicapping games. But they still matter.

If you can minimize the amount of times you give up the ball, you’re obviously going to increase your chances of capitalizing on offense.

Keep the ball in your possession, and the game is likely yours—assuming you can put the ball in the end zone. The team that wins the turnover battle wins the game 73 percent of the time.

While mastering these five aspects will go a long way towards helping a team win, bettors must not solely rely on them for handicapping games. College football outcomes swing like a loose pendulum.

Cellar dwellers beat good teams when they’re not looking, or at the very least beat the spread. Slumping squads can come out strong against rivals or must-wins.

Oh, and there are other conferences besides the big ones (SEC, Big 12, Big 10, ACC, Pac 12).

Oddsmakers tend to look at the big TV games and the big conference matchups—the ones they know the betting public will be going heavy on.

This means, smaller conference games will likely slip through the cracks. If you’re betting ‘over/unders,’ look at the smaller conferences as value could be there because of the lack of two-way action.

There is big money to be made in smaller-market games. One thing I’ve learned in life is never to follow the crowd. If you want to outsmart oddsmakers and increase your returns, be your own advocate, look for the games people are sleeping on.

Thankfully, they’re not hard to find in the NCAA.

There are many football betting markets available, with 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and first goal scorer being among some of the most popular and easy to understand. However, there are plenty of other options when betting on football, one of which is handicap betting.

How many times have you thought about betting on a football match, looked at the betting markets online, seen handicap betting and chose to ignore it because you are not sure what it means?

Perhaps you do know what it means but have never taken the plunge? Whatever your current thoughts on handicap betting, you are about to become enlightened with our tips for how to win more at handicap betting.

In this article you will find out a lot about the handicap betting market including:

• What is handicap betting?
• How does handicap betting work?
• What leagues should you bet on?
• What are the best betting sites?
• How can you win more using handicap betting?

Find out the answers to these questions and much more by continuing below.

1. Handicap Betting Explained

For many beginner football gamblers, handicap betting is something new but thankfully, it is easy enough to understand.

Handicap betting is popular when a strong football team is playing against a weaker team. To balance the playing field and make the match more interesting for gamblers, the bookmaker will open a handicap betting market and give the favourite a disadvantage at the beginning of the match and the outsider an advantage.

Example

Let’s take a look at the 2018/19 Champions League round of 16 second leg game between Manchester City and Schalke as an example.

Manchester City won the first leg in Germany and are the bookies favourites to win the Champions League. They won the first leg 3-2 and are priced at just 1/6 (1.17)to win the second leg, making them the overwhelming favourites.

You believe the bookmakers are right and Manchester City will win the game and will do with ease. However, there is little point in betting on odds of 1/6 (1.17) and this is where handicap betting comes into play.

The handicap market gives Manchester City (-2) at odds of 11/10 (2.10). At 1/6 (1.17), at €10 bet would return €11.66 but using the handicap odds of 11/10 (2.10), the potential returns are a more satisfying €21.

For the bet to be a winner, Manchester City must win the game by 3 clear goals. The (-2) listed on the odds refers to goals and therefore, Manchester City are starting the game 2-0 down for the purpose of the bet.

If Manchester win the game 1-0, they lose 1-2 for the purposes of the bet and you lose your stake. If the match ends 2-0 to Manchester city, the final score is 2-2 for the purposes of the bet and you lose. If Manchester City win 3-0, the outcome in terms of the bet is 3-2 in favour of Manchester City and you win the bet.

Now you know how handicap betting works, let’s take a look at some tips for how to win more at handicap betting.

• Balances the playing field
• Gives weaker team an advantage
• Goals are the key
• Makes potentially mundane matches interesting

2. Use the Best Betting Sites

Using the best betting sites is important, not only for handicap betting but for all forms of betting. You want to place your handicap bets at online bookmakers who have the correct licensing, security certificates, good support and selection of payment methods.

With that in place, you must look at the selection of handicap betting markets. You do not want to be betting at a website which has limited handicap betting markets. You want to click on a football match knowing there will be handicap betting odds available, not hoping there will be handicap betting odds available.

You will waste a great deal of time if you keep having to search different bookmakers because the one you have chosen does not offer handicap betting odds.

• Check licenses and certificates
• Look for handicap odds
• Use only if regular handicap odds available

3. Find the Best Odds

Handicap betting may be a new form of football betting for some people but the same principles apply when it comes to finding the best odds. You must bet on handicap markets using the best odds available.

You will only increase your potential winnings by betting using the best odds and, in most cases, it can take seconds to compare odds between various bookmakers. You could be losing out on a great deal of money over the course of a year if you accept the first odds you find when handicap betting.

Take the short amount of time required to find the highest odds possible for your handicap bet and reap the full rewards when you place a successful bet.

• Look for the best odds
• Use comparison tool
• Do not be lazy and look around

4. Team Form

Before placing a handicap bet you must check the form of both teams involved. This means general form, the form for that particular competition and home/away form.

For example, you may find a team such as Porto enjoy a fantastic record in the Portuguese league and start as favourites in most games. You would use handicap betting when placing a bet on Porto to defeat a lower team in the Portuguese league.

However, when they play in the Champions League, their record is not as good and therefore you would tend to avoid using handicap betting in this competition.

When analysing form for handicap betting, you want to look for teams who are dominant and you can then place a bet feeling confident they can overturn the handicap placed upon them.

Manchester City or Liverpool playing at home in the Premier League against teams from the bottom half of the table is a good example.

• Home and Away form important
• Look at that particular tournament
• Find dominant teams

5. Bet on Heavy Favourites

This brings us nicely on to our next handicap betting tip, which is to bet on heavy favourites. It can be tempting to go for an outsider and hope they make life tough for the favourite but you are always advised to back the heavy favourite when handicap betting.

While winning a bet can never be guaranteed and you should never bet more than you can afford, backing the heavy favourite when handicap betting will always give you a better chance of success.

Think about it in terms of making shorter odds more favourable and you begin to see why. Take our example of Manchester City from above. If they are playing at home in the Premier League against Cardiff City and have won each of their last three home league games by 3 goals or better, the odds for a Manchester City win are going to be very low.

Asian Handicap Football Betting Explained

However, for every goal head start you give Cardiff City, the better the odds are going to become. In this instance, you could bet on Manchester City (-2) and still stand a good chance of winning the bet. Handicap betting odds are always better when used to back the favourite and if you stick to this principle it will help increase the potential for you to win.

• Always back the favourite
• Dominant teams are best
• Use teams who are strong at home

6. Team News

Team news plays a huge roll in betting and one of our top tips for how to win more at handicap betting is to always check the team news before placing a bet.

If Liverpool are playing Burnley at home in the Premier League, you would expect Liverpool to come out on top and by a couple of goals. However, you take a look at the team news one hour prior to kick-off and Liverpool are playing without Virgil van Dijk, Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah.

With these key players missing, Liverpool become much weaker in both defence and attack. Therefore, their chances of winning the match by a significant margin become reduced and you would think twice about placing a handicap bet on Liverpool to win.

Imagine you placed a Bet on Liverpool (-2) only to later discover their team is missing these three players? There is no excuse for it so do not allow it to happen to you.

• Always check team news
• Look for key players
• Never bet if important players are missing

7. Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between teams can provide a good insight into what might happen in a match. You should never expect the same type of result to repeat itself every season between two teams but you can use it to back up you handicap betting plans.

If a team has been enjoying 2 or 3 goal wins over a team at home in their past five meetings, you will feel confident placing a handicap bet on them next time the fixture is played.

However, always try and find out the relevance of the fixtures you are looking at. Stoke City vs Liverpool is a great example and the home team defeated Liverpool 6-1 at the end of the 2014/15 campaign only for Liverpool to return the following season and win 1-0.

The timing and significance of a previous fixture should always be considered before placing a bet.

• Check head-to-head record
• Use it to back-up your plan
• Check significance of the previous fixture

8. In-form Players

If you are planning on placing a handicap bet, you want to ensure the team you are backing has players who are scoring goals. You do not want to back a team to overcome a two goal handicap if their strikers have been struggling to score goals.

They could even be playing what is considered weak opposition but if a team does not have someone who can put the ball in the back of the net, it could turn into a struggle. Always try and back teams with players in goal scoring form when handicap betting.

• Back teams with top goal scorers
• Check form of strikers
• Find teams with players in goal scoring form

9. Statistical Margin

It is not always enough to simply look at the past five results and the team news when placing a handicap bet. You must also look at individual results, be it for the whole of the previous season or for the matches already played in the current campaign.

Look at the number of times each team in the league has won games by a 2 goal margin or better. For example, you may find a team in 5^th place has won the same number of games by a 2 goal margin or better as the team in 15^th place.

Perhaps the 15^th place team has defeated most of the teams below them comfortably so when they come up against someone below them in the table next, you can look at handicap betting as an option.

Taking the 2014/15 Premier League season as an example, Tottenham Hotspur finished in 5^th place and won five games by a 2 goal margin or better while Hull City finished in 18^th place and had the same record. So, it can happen and it pays to do some research to find out this key information before placing a handicap bet.

You can keep a record of which teams are winning by high margins throughout the season and this will make it easier to find the information as and when you need it.

Handicap Football Betting Tips

• Research margin of victory
• Which teams are winning by 2 goals or more?
• Keep your own record for easy reference

Handicap In Football Betting Means

10. Low Scoring Teams

There is one simple rule you need to follow when handicap betting and that’s to stay away from low scoring teams.

When you think about it, this makes sense because when handicap betting on the favourite to win, you are backing them to overturn a deficit. If that team has managed to score just 1 goal in each of their last five games, how are they going to overturn a -1 goal handicap?

Soccer Asian Handicap Betting Tips

The team may be in form in terms of their results but if they have been winning most of their matches 1-0, you would consider it unlikely they are going to all of a sudden produce a performance which sees them win 3-0.

It could be down to the tactics of the manager or the playing personnel but you should always avoid low scoring teams.

• Avoid low scoring teams
• Keep away from teams winning 1-0
• Consider a team’s tactics before betting

Nfl Football Betting Lines

11. Unrealistic Handicaps

If you have tasted some success handicap betting it can become tempting to push your luck a little and increase the handicap by one more goal to improve the odds further. Do not be tempted to do this as you will only be disappointed you did not stick you your original plan if the bet loses.

You could always combine the bet with another one if you would like to increase the odds and you should certainly stay away from big handicaps, such as (-4). As tempting as the odds might be, the bookmaker will be laughing if you decide to place such a bet as it is not often you find many games in the top leagues which end with a 5 goal margin of victory.

• Keep control
• Do not increase the handicap for better odds
• Stay away from unrealistic handicaps

Handicap Betting Meaning

Handicap betting is a great way to place a bet on a heavy favourite and improve your odds. If you follow the handicap betting tips above you will have a better chance of placing a winning handicap bet but remember there is always a risk and you should never bet more than you can afford.